Everyone wins who doesn't own spectrum. Beneath all the rhetoric, spectrum prices should be coming down around the world. Wireless technology is moving so fast that there just isn't much need for more spectrum. The spectrum price fall in the U.S. and the low bids in India suggest a general trend worldwide, but predicting auctions is very tricky. I've been writing "An Age of Wireless Abundance" for the last two months, but didn't call the auction. Tim Farrar had perspective last fall and a prescient call a month ago.
John Hodulik's and Craig Moffett's notes this morning showed why they are the best on Wall Street. John wrote, "This brings the broadcaster ask well below our prior expectations for forward auction proceeds." Kudos also to Brett Feldman of Goldman for, "We estimate that the auction will end with just under $18bn of bids, implying a valuation of $0.86/MHz/POP, which is half of our generic ‘low-band’ spectrum value estimate of $1.69." Few in the public eye are frank about mistakes like this, but we all make them. Honest admissions earn respect.