We've moved to Wirelessone.news because the marketing people made 5G a meaningless term.
Good data could reduce the confusion that often dominates "international policy" discussions. What are the real costs of backhaul and royalties in each country, by far the largest international factors in consumer prices? How much undersea capacity is unused? (I've heard estimates as high as 90%.) These are the issues the International community should be addressing, rather than the unneeded advice and meaningless drivel I hear from the U.S. State Department and so many more.
Comparing data from similar countries is often very helpful. Early in the broadband era, Xavier Niel brought the triple play down to 30 euros in France. I asked German regulator Kurth why were German prices so much higher? It was the right question.
While Jio calls the phones "free," they require a $22 deposit refundable only after three years. Jio plans start at thirty cents for 200 megabytes and unlimited calls for a day. $1.50 buys a gig/day for 7 days. It's less than $5 for a gig each day for 28 days. 500M Indians are still on 2G phones. Starting in September, Jio intends to migrate hundreds of millions to 4G.
Ambani's 4G network offers more than 10X the capacity of 2G & 3G, drastically bringing down the network cost. 4G is so much cheaper to run Ambani would come out ahead even with a $10/phone subsidy. The $20B LTE system is easily handling 100M paid subscribers. The government measured speeds have been going up despite the massive subscriber influx. It's designed to inexpensively upgrade to carrier aggregation and MIMO for 5X to 10X current capacity.
The Made-In-India JioPhone supports 22 major languages, voice over LTE, secure payments, and voice dialing. Press #5 to send a distress signal, a feature I predict others will copy. The chip is either a Qualcomm Snapdragon 205 or a Spreadtrum SC9820. The 205 is about as basic as you can get today. 3 MP camera, 640 x 480 screen and LTE Cat 4 topping out at 150 megabits. The SC9820 can support a 5 MP camera and 720P video. Both are manufactured on a years-old 28 nm process and have two ARM cores. The first iPhone had a 3.5 inch screen at 320x480. The JioPhone screen by one report will be smaller.
$400B between 2020 & 2030 says MIIT, $180B says SCMP. Morgan Stanley predicts, "We expect China Mobile's 5G capex to commence in 2019 with peak cycle in 2020-23. We project 5G capex of RMB 480 bn (US$70 bn, 14% of revenue) in 2019-23."
There is no longer any doubt that China will do a massive 5G build starting in 2019 or 2020, as soon as the equipment is ready. China's real 5G is likely to cover hundreds of millions by the middle of the next decade, more than anyone else on earth. China will almost certainly be the first to 10M 5G subscribers. China Mobile is among the world leaders in true 5G and expects to upgrade 1% of their million+ base stations by 2010 with mmWave. China Mobile Research is among the best in the world.
But the SCMP projection, "The mainland will have 588.3 million 5G subscribers by 2022, about 39.9 per cent of total mobile users nationwide in that year," could not be met by any plausible deployment of mmWave, Massive MIMO or anything with significantly more capacity than LTE.
Absolutely not announced but I'm sure they made the go decision. Recent actions have made clear they are going forward to 30-50M homes, probably 2019-2022. This will require 100.000's of thousand of small cells and possibly over a million. They want the best network in America, probably unmatched in any other part of the world as well.
My conviction comes from my belief that the top people at Verizon are smart and knowledgeable. They've taken several actions that would be stupid if the big build wasn't decided. McAdam and team are the opposite of stupid.
Anything new, the marketing people call "5G." The 600 MHz system T-Mobile just announced as "5G Nationwide" is an (excellent) 4G LTE system with a few minor tweaks that add little. (5G NR.) I'm not the only one who thinks so; Telefonica CTO Enrique Blanco just said publicly what his peers are saying privately.
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