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Dean, Mingxi Fan "Will LTE-U as planned detect the Wi-Fi signal to the tablet I'm holding up connected to Wi-Fi in the next room?

Published: 08 September 2016

ViterbiAn honest answer wipes out the case for LTE-U. Assume the signal measures -80 dBm and it works. Will your LTE-U protect my Wi-Fi against interference?

The answer is no. The best data available is that half of the Wi-Fi signals are -80 dBm or lower. Qualcomm's Dean Brenner and Mingxi Fan are speaking this week at the CTIA show. I hope someone asks them.

Verizon and Qualcomm insist a test to -72 dBm detects all Wi-Fis and prevents interference. These are log scales; -72 dBm is much stronger than -80 dBm.  "LTE-U will not harm or interfere with Wi-Fi," the folks from Qualcomm and Verizon tell policy makers. (I found that or an equivalent statement 7 times, including in official FCC filings.) They go further, adding, "If LTE-U interferes with Wi-Fi, it should be prohibited." I agree.

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Editorial: LTE-U causes interference with Wi-Fi. The emperor is naked.

Published: 04 September 2016

Everyone reading this knows Wi-Fi is worth protecting. Verizon is leading a four company grab of as much as half the WI-Fi frequencies  One of the best engineers in wireless emails on interference,  "-86 dBm might be best." An industry group determined that -82 dBm is right. $300B of corporate power - Verizon and Qualcomm - is demanding -72 dBm. These are log scales. The difference is enormous. 

Brenner of Qualcomm has said LTE-U will not interfere. B______. The best available test data shows Verizon's proposal would interfere with more than half of the WI-FI signals. They have provided no evidence otherwise despite seven requests. They are now trying to rig the testing, including by using obsolete equipment. No civil society or public interest people are allowed anywhere near the industry decision. The power here is what Bill Kennard calls "Black Ninjas. They work in the dark and are very, very good." 

Ambani pricing isn't crazy. France, Finland, and Denmark are similar.

Published: 02 September 2016

Datamonitor price chartXavier Niel is making $billions pricing as low as 40 euro cents. The wireless world is shocked by Reliance Jio's low price of $0.74/gigabyte. I picked up an Indian Express comment "Cheapest 4G-LTE data rates the world has ever seen." By some measures, that's true; by others, such as price/gigabyte at 50 gig, France and Finland are lower. The other Indian carriers are frantically trying to find a way to match Ambani's pricing without going broke.

European data demonstrate today's LTE networks are efficient enough to thrive on low prices. Datamonitor provides this handy chart of best European prices. For 20 gigabyte usage, Denmark is about the same price as Reliance. At 50 gigabytes, Finland and France are actually a little cheaper. In comparison, U.S. prices are astronomical. Germany and Italy, with only three carriers, are very high. (Data below)

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Randall Stephenson expects "rapid deployment of 5G wireless technology in rural areas." WTF?

Published: 02 September 2016

att gigapowerVirtually certain: Almost no deployment of 5G highband to rural areas anytime soon. The CEO of AT&T personally came to D.C. to make an absurd argument for protecting very high pricing for rural backhaul, absolutely the right policy choice. 

He told Commissioner Mignon Clyburn "the decision to regulate prices for business data services (“BDS”), particularly fiber-based BDS, will deter incentives for the rapid deployment of 5G wireless technology in rural America." 

Everyone knows that AT&T is not going to deploy meaningful amounts of 5G wireless technology in rural America for at least a decade and probably longer. Millimeter wave has a very short reach. Verizon is hoping to get 500 feet. That means an enormous number of cells are required, literally millions for a wide U.S. rollout. It's a sure money loser for a very long time except in dense areas.

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10 gig LTE $7.40 at Reliance. All calls free.

Published: 01 September 2016

"Cheapest 4G-LTE data rates the world has ever seen." India will shortly have more 4G connection that the U.S. has people (317M.) China already does. In a few years, Indians with 4G phones will probably number more than the combined population of Western Europe and the United States. This is a very different Internet.

Mukesh Ambani spent $20B on the network across India. He intends to get 100M users as soon as possible. The other telcos are dropping prices to match or going out of business. India has 12 wireless carriers competing, but many think that will quickly come down to 4 or 5. Telenor is the latest to give up. 

Everything is free until December 31. If $7.40 is too much, you can buy one gig for $0.74 on a day pass.

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Tim Farrar: U.S. auction ?$25-35B

Published: 04 September 2016

US SpectrumPaul Milgrom's auction design keeps everyone guessing. Anyone who tells you she is sure of the outcome doesn't know very much. I was so wrong the last time I'm not even trying this time. Wall Streeters I respect, including Craig Moffett and John Hodulik,  believe the phone companies + Comcast will find it very hard to bid more than $30B-$40B.

That will let them split about 70 MHz except in a few big cities if no one plays the spoiler. AT&T 4G customers run in 20 MHz. That would be a good outcome for the carriers. The last auction had prices about three times as high, presumably because Charlie Ergen made an attempt to corner the market.

AT&T has 40 MHz of completely empty spectrum ready to put to work, enough to create a Verizon-sized network. Verizon CFO Fran Shammo said Verizon bid so high last time they could have built the same capacity for a third of what they spent.

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  1. The next 6 years of wireless; 6 things you need to know (Draft for comment.)
  2. Gig LTE: Telstra 2016, Swisscom 2017; AT&T joining the parade
  3. Qualcomm's Brenner: LTE-U may go nowhere because it can't pass interference tests (First look)
  4. "This year" for Gigabit LTE at SKT
  5. China tower sharing: One network to rule them all
  6. 100M subscribers for Reliance's $22B pan-India, very cheap LTE
  7. $45-$100 Decent LTE Phones from Reliance Jio
  8. "$80B" Indian auction could be world changing - or only $12B
  9. Going Live: Free Gigabit Wi-Fi to Millions of New Yorkers
  10. Not likely an $86B Auction: Quick thoughts on what the future Nobelist is doing
  11. 99% of mobile will not be millimeter wave 5G in 2021: Analyst
  12. Today's WiFi can work at -72 dBm and even -90 dBm, says New York City
  13. 8,550,405 New Yorkers: Protect WiFi from LTE-U/LAA
  14. From Rupert Wood, doubts on the financials of 5G replacing landlines
  15. Cohere's coding for 5G interests AT&T, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, Telefonica and Telstra
  16. U.S. Cable: "The Wireless Future is Us."
  17. Must-See TV for Anyone in Wireless: 5G BROOKLYN APRIL 21-22
  18. Cisco Confirms Slower Mobile Traffic Growth
  19. Full Duplex in the Field at Telecom Italia; Verizon, Cisco Putting Money Behind Kumu
  20. 4G LTE: $11 for 10 Gigabytes Across 90% of India from Ambani & Reliance
  21. Mobile: "Huawei Kirin 950 Takes Performance Lead"
  22. Soon come: 145 MHz spectrum, 3 gigabit speeds in Rwanda
  23. 2-3 Gigabits Spectrum Unused at Dish, Verizon, Sprint & AT&T (AO)
  24. 300 Megabit 3 Band LTE in Korea, Spain
  25. Beamforming Explained: What the Heck Is It?
  26. 14,000 Tests Support Indoor High Frequencies for 5G
  27. Ericsson: Microwave Fine for 5G Backhaul. Needs Proof.
  28. France Telecom Getting Serious About 5G in High Frequencies
  29. Why U.S. Mobile Sucks: 50% Fewer Cell Sites

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