It's not actually "5G" but it delivers great speed, is commercial today, cheap, doesn't need expensive mmWave, and beats Verizon to market. Impressive. From a customer's home near Fremont, George Ginis's Sail Internet used the Mimosa PtMP radio in Wi-Fi spectrum. I know the people and the technology and believe it works. I just didn't know the products were ready.
George, a friend, just tweeted, "My favorite moment at work is when I run a speed test like this - from a customer's home served by a @GoMimosa PtMP radio." Image at left and larger below.
Of course, this isn't "5G" in a meaningful sense. The Mimosa gear is essentially a souped up 4x4 802.11ac Wi-Fi with some special sauce.
$B in Corning fiber optic cable implies $4-7B in total cost. Verizon April 21 commitment to the huge fiber buy implies a much larger network build. The actual fiber is almost always less than 30% of the total cost and sometimes < 10%. This should cover more than 100,000 miles of network.
Verizon just spent $1.8B to purchase XO and 20,000 miles of fiber around the country (map on left and larger below.) They have massive amounts of fiber in place in their territory, ~25% of the U.S. They also have extensive fiber to support their nationwide and international long distance network.
Craig Moffett shoots down deal rumors. There's lots of speculation about Verizon buying Charter or Comcast, giving them a local network to support their 5G build. Buying Comcast would cost $240B+, including $58B in debt. Charter would go for a modest $164B+, including $59B debt. They can build their own fiber networks for $5-10B, which looks smarter.
Moffett adds to the doubts by pointing out any deal would hurt Verzon's leverage ratio or dividend coverage. Both are already challenging. They could probably find the money somehow, I believe, but their balance sheet would wind up very ugly.
CFO Ellis in the latest quarterly report writes
- That it is on track for a return by the 2018-2019 timeframe to the company’s credit-rating profile prior to the acquisition of Vodafone’s indirect 45 percent interest in Verizon Wireless in early 2014.
That would be all but impossible with a large acquisition.
"Our goal is to put 1 gig speeds in our customers' hands no matter where they are on our network." CEO Randall Stephenson will begin quadrupling network capacity as soon as this year. John Donovan committed AT&T to deploy Gig LTE this year, 3x to 4x what they are running now. Most of AT&T's 4G network is running 2 bands and 2 antennas. Gig LTE is three or four bands, four antennas, and 256 QAM. 60 MHz allows adding 3 bands for a total of five. SKT, Korea's largest mobile carrier, is already testing five bands with Samsung. (pr below.) Verizon also has > 40 MHz of unused spectrum, enough to double their capacity.
"So you add it all up. We now have more than 60 megahertz of fallow spectrum that we're ready to light up
"Worst quarter in 20 years!?" Each company made $3.5B in three months, still a heckuva lot of money. Don't feel sorry for them; they remain among the most profitable companies in the world. They just aren't quite as strong as when they led an effective cartel. The cartel busted in wireless because of excessive greed. They left T-Mobile and Sprint no choice but to cut prices to win some market share. Both stocks are down, but still doing well for companies without growth. Verizon's market cap is $190B, AT&T $242B.
On wired, Verizon has been disinvesting since virtually stopping upgrades back in 2009. They are getting clobbered where they still have 15-year-old DSL technology, as cable goes to 50-70 megabits standard.
7 Chinese, 2 Korean, & Apple. Until I saw Will Strauss' table, I didn't realize the U.S. and Europe were this far behind. 2016 was a tragic year for smartphone makers, who were counting on continued high growth. 2017 almost certainly will be little better.
"The top suppliers of smartphone shipments for 2016 were Samsung at 21%, Apple 15.1%, Huawei 9%, Oppo 6.4%, Vivo/Vsun 4.8%, LG 4.2%, Xiaomi 4%, Lenovo 3.8%, ZTE 3.7%, and Alcatel (TCL) at 2.6%" Will Strauss These are shipment totals; Apple stands out in sales dollars.
Qualcomm (blue) and Mediatek (orange) dominate chips.
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