OnoeMost previously expected deployments before 2022 to be extremely modest. The highly respected NTT DOCOMO CTO in 2015 predicted little mmWave mobile before 2022-2023. That became the common wisdom among leading engineers despite the massive pr it would be sooner. At the Brooklyn 5G, he acknowledged advances have been made and he now expects sooner. Ted Rappaport is no longer the outlier on projected volume deployment. Nothing is certain yet, but many think Onoe is on target. 3GPP, under pressure from telcos, is cooperating.

3GPP, under pressure from telcos, is cooperating. They are expediting the ridiculously named "5G New Radio Non-standalone." That's mostly a 4G LTE system with some software tweaks and the ability to use mmWave as well as Wi-Fi spectrum. The existing LTE network will handle the hard stuff,

such as handovers when a car driving 60 mph rapidly crosses cells. Existing LTE will "control" the network; the extra spectrum will add more data capacity. Inoe in his 2016 presentation "5G Myths" dispelled any thoughts of shutting down LTE for a decade or more. That too has become common wisdom, so the telcos can depend on LTE for the control plan for many years.

"Non-standalone" will have additional capacity from the added spectrum, possibly 5 gigabits to 200-600 homes. Towers will have generally transmit about a gigabit to 2-4 times as many. Unlike "New Radio" in 3.5 GHz spectrum, it's not "fake 5G." Careful thinkers call "Non-standalone" and "fixed 5G mmWave" Phase One. The full 5G won't be available until Phase Two and Three next decade.

Intel is promising mmWave chip samples later in 2017 for deployment. Qualcomm is similar. Both are expecting production chips in 2019. The first chips will almost certainly be power-hungry, hot, and require large batteries. Some will get to testing and perhaps early adopters in 2019, making 2020 for a wider deployment perhaps reasonable.

Verizon I believe has decided to go ahead with a ~$20B small cell network to cover 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. between 2019 & 2022. Officially, all they promise is "commercial deployments of fixed wireless mmWave & 4G small cells in 2019." Mobile 5G will be added when ready. They already are going full speed ahead with the small cells. Equipment is in place in 11 cities and the official announcement will be very soon. The vendors (Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung) are all promising an easy and inexpensive upgrade to mmWave mobile. 

Massive mobile capacity ~2020 is extremely encouraging to Verizon, who just had their worst quarter in 20 years. Verizon's entire business model is based on charging premium prices for a better network. T-Mobile's network is now so close to Verizon performance in most cities customers are going for the lower prices. That's an important reason Verizon is rushing; they need to maintain an image of superiority.

10,0000+ engineers are working away but nothing is guaranteed.

Newsletter

Often interesting

Latest issue

 Gig LTE & Massive MIMO ushering in the Age of Wireless Abundance

Wireless Abundance is here: What the new tech means http://bit.ly/Wirelessabundance
Sprint & T-Mobile Charge to be 1st in U.S. to Gig LTE bit.ly/STMOgig  AT&T bit.ly/ATTGIG2016
Kitahara of Softbank “I am crazy about Massive MIMO” http://bit.ly/MMIMOCrazy
20 Gig mmWave, Massive MIMO & Gig LTE at the Huawei MBBF http://bit.ly/Huawei20
LTE gets to the gigabit explained for non-engineers http://bit.ly/GigLteexplained
Massive MIMO explained. http://bit.ly/WHMassiveMIMO
2017's Big Gigabit story: Qualcomm 835 is ready http://bit.ly/BigGigLTE
Doubling speed with 4x4 MIMO & 256 QAM at T-Mobile http://bit.ly/2k1gEOQ
Netgear Nighthawk M1, Telstra do "gigabit class" LTE http://bit.ly/2k1s5Gq
Spectrum price down by half http://bit.ly/Spectrumhalfoff
Dish and the telcos see big asset cut http://bit.ly/auctionlosers
Shorts on 3GPP,  NYU research, Ralph de la Vega, 5G new radio

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5GW News

dave right5G? 4G? Whatever the name, wireless is going to a gigabit, soon.  I've reported broadband since 1999 and now is the time for gigabit wireless. Catch a mistake or have news? Email me please. Dave Burstein

 

Stories worth writing

Starry may match Verizon 5G at half the cost
OFCOM in UK: Share all spectrum, even licensed
OFCOM's Boccardi: 26 GHz worldwide: U.S. goes 28 
Verizon 5G fixed tests will be only 100's of homes
Massive MIMO FD at China Uni, Tele, Huawei, ZTE

 

 

 

Datapoints

Verizon and AT&T burying price increases in fees. 

Huawei's Richard Yu intends to pass both Apple & Samsung in smartphones in five years. 

The 3,000,000,000 transistor Qualcomm 835 is a revolution. Gig LTE, incredible cameras, better VR & AR, & ... State of the art CPU, DSL, GPU, ISP tightly integrated

1,000 T-Mobile small cells 2016, 6,000 more coming. Tech Life

New $84 Reliance Lyf Wind 7S has a 5" screen, a quad-core Snapdragon, an 8 megapixel camera, and some extras. Not state of the art, perhaps, but completely usable at a modest price. 

Orange/FT 4G covers 97% of Poland, 96% of Moldova, but only 84% in France, Q3 2016. They have 113.5 mobile customers in Africa compared to 25.5M in Europe.

more

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