DOCOMO vs ATT Verizon

2017's biggest announcement - unless China does similar. NTT Docomo CEO Kazuhiro Yoshizawa plans to go "nationwide" by 2023, per the generally reliable Nikkei Asia ReviewThe estimate is that the three Japanese telcos (DOCOMO, KDDI, Softbank) will spend a total of ~$45B, some of it on shared infrastructure, The story has been picked up by more than a dozen publications but that's about the only details we have. (If DOCOMO is spending half of the $5G, that's about $200/person servable.)

DOCOMO has been dropping hints for several months. I'm hoping for a detailed announcement either at the June 20th shareholders meeting or the next quarterly conference call. Nikkei has a May 22 comment from Yoshiwara "We will lead the world with our 5G technology."

 DOCOMO has begun promoting strategies for 2020 & beyond with several mentions of 5G. 

CTO Seizo Onoe in April told me the progress in mmWave has been outstanding; he now expects mmWave mobile to be widely deployed starting in 2020. He believes the costs will be quite reasonable, probably less than 4G. (The company is not projecting a capex increase while deploying more rapidly than anyone else.)  

Six months ago, I think Ted Rappaport may have been the only expert predicting deployments so rapidly. Onoe himself a year ago predicted very little mmWave before 2022-2023. He changed his mind as new data came in. There are over 10,000 engineers working on 5G and things are coming very fast.

One reason DOCOMO can move quickly is they have about 5 times as many cells as the U.S. carriers, adjusted for population. The DOCOMO 161,900 cells are from their latest financial presentation. The AT&T and VZ 50-70,000 counts are also from financials. (Since I made that chart, AT&T has presented a 70,000 figure.) The U.S. cell density is among the lowest; 50-80% less than Spain, Japan, and China Mobile. 

The whisper in the hall is that DOCOMO expects the 5G to win customers away from parent company NTT's landline business.  With speeds in the hundreds of megabits and sometimes a gigabit, that's a real possibility. 

Now, Verizon, and Japanese, and perhaps China Mobile are going as fast as they can.

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 Gig LTE & Massive MIMO ushering in the Age of Wireless Abundance

Wireless Abundance is here: What the new tech means http://bit.ly/Wirelessabundance
Sprint & T-Mobile Charge to be 1st in U.S. to Gig LTE bit.ly/STMOgig  AT&T bit.ly/ATTGIG2016
Kitahara of Softbank “I am crazy about Massive MIMO” http://bit.ly/MMIMOCrazy
20 Gig mmWave, Massive MIMO & Gig LTE at the Huawei MBBF http://bit.ly/Huawei20
LTE gets to the gigabit explained for non-engineers http://bit.ly/GigLteexplained
Massive MIMO explained. http://bit.ly/WHMassiveMIMO
2017's Big Gigabit story: Qualcomm 835 is ready http://bit.ly/BigGigLTE
Doubling speed with 4x4 MIMO & 256 QAM at T-Mobile http://bit.ly/2k1gEOQ
Netgear Nighthawk M1, Telstra do "gigabit class" LTE http://bit.ly/2k1s5Gq
Spectrum price down by half http://bit.ly/Spectrumhalfoff
Dish and the telcos see big asset cut http://bit.ly/auctionlosers
Shorts on 3GPP,  NYU research, Ralph de la Vega, 5G new radio

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5GW News

dave right5G? 4G? Whatever the name, wireless is going to a gigabit, soon.  I've reported broadband since 1999 and now is the time for gigabit wireless. Catch a mistake or have news? Email me please. Dave Burstein

 

Stories worth writing

Starry may match Verizon 5G at half the cost
OFCOM in UK: Share all spectrum, even licensed
OFCOM's Boccardi: 26 GHz worldwide: U.S. goes 28 
Verizon 5G fixed tests will be only 100's of homes
Massive MIMO FD at China Uni, Tele, Huawei, ZTE

 

 

 

Datapoints

Verizon and AT&T burying price increases in fees. 

Huawei's Richard Yu intends to pass both Apple & Samsung in smartphones in five years. 

The 3,000,000,000 transistor Qualcomm 835 is a revolution. Gig LTE, incredible cameras, better VR & AR, & ... State of the art CPU, DSL, GPU, ISP tightly integrated

1,000 T-Mobile small cells 2016, 6,000 more coming. Tech Life

New $84 Reliance Lyf Wind 7S has a 5" screen, a quad-core Snapdragon, an 8 megapixel camera, and some extras. Not state of the art, perhaps, but completely usable at a modest price. 

Orange/FT 4G covers 97% of Poland, 96% of Moldova, but only 84% in France, Q3 2016. They have 113.5 mobile customers in Africa compared to 25.5M in Europe.

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